MUPEDD (Managing Uncertainty in Positive Energy District Design) is an innovative research project in the field of PED (Positive Energy Districts) developments, infill and expansion projects. The aim of the project is to conduct beyond state-of-the-art research on techno-economic and social parameters to support the financial, legal and organizational decision-making process of the involved private and public stakeholders.

01/09/2021 - 31/03/2024

Pieter Van Den Steen

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It is the project’s general purpose to bring new data and innovative data-analysis and modelling techniques to the field of PED development, as such generating new knowledge and scientific research related to the numerous risks linked to PED projects to support the decision-making process of the involved market players. As such, MUPEDD aims at stimulating the broader energy transition of districts and communities. 

In this project the term ‘Community’ will be defined primarily as a group of people living, working, or having other interests in a specific territorial dimension, as in the case of neighbourhoods or districts. 

MUPEDD (Managing Uncertainty in Positive Energy District Design) will provide fundamental research in techno-economic and social uncertainty and expand the knowledge financially, legally and organizationally associated with the realization of urban infill projects in the broader urban area with the goal to maximize uptake.

Research questions

MUPEDD will be centered around 3 research questions:

  • Can innovative data analysis methodologies be defined to map and manage uncertainty propagation in energy modelling scenario’s related to PED projects?
  • Can innovative data analysis methodologies be defined to predict user engagement to PED considering uncertainty related to sociological and behavioural aspect?
  • Can mitigation measures be conceptualized towards financial model accuracy based on energy, sociological and behavioural aspects?

These strategic basic research aspects will - in the medium to long run - open opportunities for the Flemish industry with innovative services with the goal of increasing the uptake and ambition of Positive Energy Districts.

Role of VITO/EnergyVille

In this project VITO/EnergyVille is, next to co – project coordinator, responsible for the energy related research. 

VITO/EnergyVille will, based on data characterization and data enrichment techniques, provide quantified insights on the required data and associated uncertainty in different stages of the PED development. Data will be collected on both energy performance and use for all buildings in Flanders as well as in use case districts serving as both training and validation data of the beyond state-of-the-art algorithms.

The research will focus on the accurate characterisation of the current energy state of the buildings – and the associated uncertainty – as a basis for the simulation of future energy use and the required investment costs when raising the district’s energy performance to PED standards. Additionally sociological and behavioural traits data will be integrated with physically based models, which will lead to new insights and new heights in energy efficient investment. The goal of this research topic is to advance knowledge on calculation heuristics to consider uncertainty analysis in PED pre-design simulations and thus advance knowledge on robustness analysis for PED design.

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