Predictive traffic light system for geothermal power plant (pTLS)
The predictive traffic light system developed by VITO is crucial for risk management in the field of induced seismicity resulting from geothermal energy extraction. Strictly defined parameters, which indicate movements in the deep subsurface, can reduce production to a halt.
The demonstration project with VITO's geothermal power plant also delivers an innovative digital tool: a predictive traffic light system. The traffic light system is crucial in risk management regarding induced seismicity due to geothermal energy extraction. Strictly defined parameters that indicate movements in the deep subsurface can reduce or halt production.
Even better would be to adjust production before movements in the deep underground occur, in order to further reduce the risk of earthquakes. For this purpose, IT specialists and geologists have developed a predictive traffic light system. This model combines data from various sources, such as the production facility (flow rate, pressure, etc.), the seismometer network (raw seismometer data: very small displacements measured at different measurement stations), and seismic event data obtained by processing the raw seismometer data.
A first, statistical approach of the pTLS is based on the analysis of the earthquake catalog and the production data that have been collected since December 2018. These are used to calculate the probability that an event in the near future will exceed the threshold values of the traffic light system.
The prediction of the next status of the TLS is based on the status (observations) at the time of evaluation (TLS status for the past 24 hours), an assumption about production during the coming period, e.g., for the next 7 days, and statistical relationships between the production parameters and seismic activity. The analyses have resulted in a first version of the pTLS, which has been operational since the beginning of 2025.
In the next phase, we want to expand the pTLS with a deterministic approach. For this, a more detailed model of the underground reservoir is needed. This is currently being developed based on the data from the 3D seismic campaign of autumn 2024.
More information
Would you like to know more about the predictive traffic light system or our geothermal power plant? Contact Ben Laenen.
Homegrown Innovation: IT in Geological Research
This research is a result of VITO's own innovation budget in the world of the (shallow) subsurface. It is an example of how VITO invests in its data-driven research capabilities with advanced hardware and data systems. These form the basis for the development of innovative digital tools thanks to the close collaboration between geologists and IT experts. VITO develops the tools to efficiently unlock complex data for partners, such as the Flemish government. The tools can be used in projects but can also inspire new research lines.
