In the context of the projects EPOC 2030-2050 and PATHS 2050, experts from VITO/EnergyVille worked (and are still working) together with colleagues from other Belgian institutes to look into Belgium's transition to a safe, affordable and carbon-neutral energy supply, and to outline possible pathways in this regard. How can we achieve a climate-neutral Belgium in 2050, at the lowest social cost?
How will our energy system evolve in the coming years and decades? Is a safe, affordable and carbon-neutral energy supply possible by 2050? And what can or needs to be done to that end? These are the core questions that were the thrust of the EPOC 2030-2050 project, and which researchers from no less than 13 Belgian institutes have been working on for almost 5 years. And in this regard, the project also delivered something new, as thanks to EPOC 2030-2050, Belgium now has a virtual expertise and data centre on energy. ‘Our overarching energy model brings all the relevant sectors together. Moreover, it is tri-regional: we can separately focus on Brussels, Flanders and Wallonia,’ explains project coordinator Pieter Vingerhoets from VITO/EnergyVille.
No more fragmentation
Knowledge of and expertise in energy have always been highly fragmented and scattered in the Belgian context. Every scientific institute went about its work in its own way. For example, it used its own energy model to simulate the future energy system, and therefore to study it. Moreover, studies – such as those commissioned by policy-makers – often focused on one or more components of that system, without viewing that system as a whole. And then, of course, there is the complex Belgian organisational context: the authority over energy policy is distributed among federal and regional governments.
EPOC 2030-2050 marked a departure from this fragmented and scattered approach. The initiative – among the first supported through the federal Energy Transition Fund – brought together 13 Belgian research institutes over the past five years. The aim? To develop energy models together in order to study the future of energy in Belgium, including all the relevant sectors and across regional borders – nevertheless with the possibility to focus on Brussels, Flanders and Wallonia separately. The project was coordinated by VITO/EnergyVille and ran from October 2018 to June 2023.
The linchpin of the project was the so-called TIMES model: an energy model that seeks cost-efficient solutions based on technical or economic preconditions. These may be security of supply, or carbon-neutrality by 2050, but could also be affordability for citizens and companies. The model was adapted to the Belgian energy context, and to the three regions as well. ‘TIMES-BE, our Belgian TIMES energy model, is indeed tri-regional: it can also be used specifically for Brussels, Flanders and Wallonia,’ explains project coordinator Pieter Vingerhoets. ‘That is very important, as there are of course some major differences between the regions. Flemish industry is different from Walloon industry, for example, and the same goes for mobility and transport.’ At the same time, the overarching Belgian TIMES energy model takes account of the interactions between the regions in terms of energy. 'In that sense, you could see it as a helicopter model'. And that helicopter aspect can also be seen in the way in which the Belgian TIMES energy model brings the various relevant sectors together. ‘In contrast to earlier modelling work, TIMES-BE now takes important, energy-intensive industries – such as the chemical, cement and steel industry, much more into account.’ The integrated nature of the Belgian TIMES energy model therefore means we can carry out modelling work for specific regions or sectors. As such, the results are objective, and very reliable, because EPOC 2030-2050 enjoys such broad support. Vingerhoets: ‘As an energy expert, I personally find this the most important gain from the project: for the first time, it brought our Belgian research community together in its entirety.’
Data-driven roadmaps and pathways
In the autumn of 2022, VITO/EnergyVille launched PATHS 2050 | The Power of Perspective – a platform where more than 200 EnergyVille researchers collaborated to chart data-driven roadmaps and potential pathways for achieving a climate-neutral Belgium by 2050, at the lowest societal cost.
The PATHS 2050 and EPOC 2030-2050 projects are both based on the TIMES energy model and are closely intertwined: the industrial backbone for the platform consists of the modelling as developed within the EPOC project, and in this sense the groundbreaking PATHS 2050 project is – at an overarching Belgian level – building upon the unique tri-regional results from EPOC 2030-2050.
At the request of Febeliec, VITO/EnergyVille extended the PATHS 2050 platform with new scenarios. As such, the working life of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear power plants have been extended by 20 years instead of 10 years. The impact of a possible restart of two additional nuclear power plants, Doel 3 and Tihange 2, was also calculated.
The new results show that extending Doel 4 and Tihange 3 by 20 years, at a cost of €65/MWh, would be part of a cost-optimal mix. A restart of Doel 3 and Tihange 2 in 2030 is much less interesting in economic terms. A restart is no longer cost-effective at a cost higher than €75/MWh and therefore also barely makes electricity generation cheaper at a cost just below €75/MWh. Especially after 2035, both scenarios have a downward impact on the share of renewables in the total energy mix, but do not fundamentally change the calculated emission reduction pathways.
It is important to note that this follow-up study looks at the potential economic benefits and costs of nuclear extension from an energy system perspective. In other words, the study provides insight into whether extending Doel 4 and Tihange 3 for 20 years for an additional 2 GW is cost-effective. In addition, the study sheds light on at what cost of electricity generation a lifetime extension of 2 GW of additional capacity (Doel 3 and Tihange 2) could be cost-effective for the energy system. The study does not assess the business case for investment in a nuclear extension or restart.
The EPOC collaboration leaves behind a virtual expertise and data centre in the field of energy, which will continue to be a breeding ground for new collaborations even after the project ends. In fact, there is a lot of interest in this kind of service provision, as revealed in the response from several major stakeholders including essenscia, Fluxys, Engie and the FPS Economy, which were all in attendance on 9 May 2023 at Thor Park, Genk, for the closing event of EPOC 2030-2050.
